2024 Presidential Race KSTP/Survey US poll results

2024 Presidential Race KSTP/Survey US poll results

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(KSTP) – For our third poll in a row, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a statistical dead heat.

According to our latest exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota voters, Biden leads Trump 44% to 42%, with 11% saying they’ll vote for another candidate and 4% undecided. The poll has a credibility interval, similar to margin of error, of ±4.9%

“When you have a 2-point race in a presidential year, you’ve got a competitive state,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said. “One that both campaigns will probably pay attention to.”

Most pollsters and political pundits don’t consider Minnesota to be among the “battleground” states where the winner of the presidency could be determined. Those states are generally considered to be Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Schier says that might change after three straight KSTP/SurveyUSA polls show Biden leading by margins of 3, 4 and 2 points — all within the margin of error.

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“A lot of pundits and pollsters assume that Minnesota is a safe Democratic state in 2024,” Schier said. “This poll indicates that is not the case.”

In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Minnesota by 1.5 points and Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 7 points.

The current poll included 39% of respondents who identify as Democrats, 36% as Republicans and 22% as independent.

With both Biden and Trump struggling with low approval ratings, Minnesota could be up for grabs among independents. Trump and Biden both get 87% support from their respective parties, but Biden clings to a 36% to 33% lead among independents.

There’s also a big gender gap, with Biden leading by 15 among women and Trump by 10 among men. However, 25% of independents prefer “other” candidates and 5% are undecided.

Geographically, the 2024 race is a tale of two Minnesotas. Biden dominates the Twin Cities and inner-ring suburbs 49% to 34%. However, Trump has big leads everywhere else, leading by 13 points in southern Minnesota, 28 points in western Minnesota and 8 points in northeastern Minnesota.

“We don’t have one Minnesota in this poll. We have two,” Schier said. “We have the Twins Cities and the inner-ring suburbs that are heavily blue and Democratic and the further away you get from that, the more conservative and Republican is the state.”

Biden polls best among voters who say abortion, gun control and health care are the most important issues. Trump does best among voters who identify the economy, immigration and taxes as the top issues.

SurveyUSA interviewed 825 adults from the state of Minnesota from April 3-7. Of the adults, 721 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings, LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to U.S. Census CPS targets for gender, age, race and education.

View the full survey results below: