After an extremely dry January, what’s next?

Warmer temperatures are on the way for the week ahead, with relatively quiet conditions as well. While the warmer temperatures will likely offset last weeks cold temperatures, we are still likely to come out of this upcoming week with well below average precipitation.

So far this month, barely any snow has fallen across southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa. With the dry conditions expected this week, it seems likely that we will end the month of January with not even an inch of snow.

Will this continue into February? Hard to say, but there are clues coming together on what we can expect going into the first half of the month.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting above average temperatures the next 6-10 days, but is then expecting below average temperatures the first week of February.

Regarding precipitation, the CPC is expecting higher odds of above average precipitation as well. Something to note is that the CPC has issued higher odds of above average precipitation for us all winter, and that has yet to be realized.

On the other hand, model guidance is coming into better agreement on a more favorable upper level set up for storms to track through the Upper Midwest beginning next weekend, and lasting through early February.

The first of these systems has already developed over California, and will meander across the desert southwest the next several days. Eventually, this low will track northeastward across the central United States. Questions on storm track and timing remain, but there at least appears to be a chance at measurable precipitation next weekend for southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

Model guidance continues to hint at more storm activity beyond this weekend through the first half of February, followed by the return of extreme cold. Time will tell if this comes to fruition, or is just wishful thinking. Either way, it sure would be nice to see some form of measurable precipitation across our area after nearly a month of hardly any at all!