Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday, some possibly strong

A storm system will sweep across the area Thursday bringing much needed rain for some, followed by cooler and more seasonal temperatures which will carry over into the weekend.

Moisture will move northward from the Gulf into the area as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. Energy ahead of the trough may produce showers and a few thunderstorms during the Thursday morning hours.

After any morning showers end, sunshine and warm temperatures in the lower 80s by afternoon will allow energy and instability to build providing fuel for another round of showers and thunderstorms developing by mid-to-late afternoon as a cold front pushes through from west-to-east. It’ll feel a bit more humid as dew point temperatures climb into the lower 60s.

There is a low-end possibility of a strong-to-severe- thunderstorm, however the higher risk and instability is expected to be near the Mississippi River and points east into Wisconsin where the Storm Prediction Center has a Level 2 (of 5) risk for severe weather. Further west into much of Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Iowa, there is a Level 1 risk. Large hail and strong wind gusts would be the main threat.

Showers and thunderstorms will end Thursday night with a chance of additional showers likely on Friday as energy, moisture and colder air wrap around the storm system as it pushes northeast into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures on Friday will be much cooler and closer to average with highs in the middle 60s.

Rainfall amounts of around 0.25″ to 0.50″ are possible across Southeast Minnesota with lighter amounts south into North Iowa.