ALERT DAY MONDAY: Severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible during the afternoon, evening

The potential remains for severe weather on Monday, with all hazards possible during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, Monday is an ALERT DAY!

A warm front will lift through the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Instability will be building as the warm front arrives, leading to a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms during this period. If enough instability is present, a few storms pose the risk of becoming severe. Large hail would be the primary threat.

Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the mid morning on Monday, before exiting the area as the warm front continues tracking east.

Through the remainder of the day, warmer air, with dew points in the 60F’s, will surge northward ahead of an advancing dry line and cold front. Aloft, drier and warmer air will be present, which will increase the amount of potential instability in the atmosphere, only if enough lift is present for rising air to punch through the cap/lid in place.

Given these conditions, this is becoming more of a conditional threat, which will depend on if rising air is able to break the cap. If rising air is able to do so, severe thunderstorms, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely. If the cap is not broken, storms will not be able to develop.

By evening, a cold front will pass through the region, which will have the potential to better punch through the cap and lead to more widespread thunderstorm development. Confidence in this playing out is still a bit tricky, especially regarding how late in the evening these storms develop, and how widespread storms will be. Large hail, damaging winds and embedded tornados will remain likely, if these storms do indeed materialize.

The risk for severe thunderstorms decreases late in the evening and into the overnight hours as the cold front tracks into Wisconsin, along with the best forcing for storms.

It’s important to have a severe weather plan in place and stay updated on future forecasts especially for those who may have outdoor plans. Now is the time to adjust outdoor plans, make sure your phone can receive severe weather alerts, and make sure your storm shelter area is accessible. Also, download the ABC 6 News app and have multiple ways to receive warnings.