May 17, 2019 06:08 PM
The third of three waves of rain will be the most impactful to the local area and holds the highest likelihood to include strong/severe storms. That threat all hinges around a warm front and how far northward it pushes. For now, the area will be split with widely varying conditions with temperatures ranging from 60° north of US 14 to nearly 80° in parts of northern Iowa. The warmer scenario will hold the best ingredients for severe weather to form, some aspects of it more favored in this area as well.
After a break from the rain, afternoon storms spark around 3 and continue with the most robust intensity through 8 PM. The primary threats will be hail potential with secondary risks of damaging wind and tornadoes over northern Iowa. That tornado risk would be brief between 3 PM and 6 PM.
Rain will continue after 8 PM but the severe characteristics will be lost.
Warm front placement will be key for severe weather potential. If it nudges northward, severe weather risks increase over SE Minnesota. The reverse is also true over north Iowa if the warm front fails to make it into the region.
Updated: May 17, 2019 06:08 PM
Created: May 17, 2019 06:06 PM
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