POLL: Trump closes in, now within 6 points of Biden in Minnesota | KAALTV.com

POLL: Trump closes in, now within 6 points of Biden in Minnesota

SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News

Updated: October 22, 2020 06:05 PM
Created: October 22, 2020 02:00 PM

(ABC 6 News) - With just 12 days until the election, Minnesota voters have President Trump within 6 of Joe Biden in the latest ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 

With 10 Electoral Votes in Minnesota, any movement toward Trump in Minnesota over the past six weeks has to be immediately qualified with the words: may or may not be statistically significant.

Six weeks ago, SurveyUSA had Biden 9 points atop Trump, 49% to 40%. Two weeks ago, Biden's support softened, Trump's stayed flat, so Trump was able to draw within 7 points, 47% to 40%. SurveyUSA observed at that time that the movement may or may not have meaning. Now, the newest data point, from today: Biden 48%, Trump 42%. Trump is within 6 of Biden, which in fairness may be a sign of the contest tightening-ever-so-slightly here, but may not. The poll-on-poll movement is just too small to say anything with confidence, except that the Democrats do not have the Minnesota race sewn up.

In suburban MN today, Trump leads by 6 points. But what is significant is that six weeks ago, Biden led in the suburbs by 17 points.

Among lower-income Minnesotans, Trump poll-on-poll is up 7 points while Biden is down 5 points, a 12-point GOP tightening.

Yes, there is the intuitive evidence that Trump has turned off senior citizens, where he now trails Biden by 19 points, but there is the counter-intuitive finding that Trump has gained ground here among women.

Of those in Minnesota who have already returned a ballot, Biden leads by nearly 2:1. So Trump must outperform his current "Election-Day-voter" numbers, which show him leading 5:3, in order to have a chance at flipping the state to his column.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults statewide from October 16, 2020 through October 20, 2020. Of the adults, 673 are registered to vote in Minnesota. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 625 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the 11/03/2020 deadline. This research was conducted online among a representative cross-section of Minnesota adults using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. 

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