POLL: Republican Lewis closes on DFL candidate Smith for US Senate seat in Minnesota

SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News

Updated: October 09, 2020 12:00 PM
Created: October 08, 2020 05:59 PM

(ABC 6 News) -  In a new exclusive ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA, Republican Jason Lewis closes in on DFL candidate Tina Smith in the race for the US Senate seat. 

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, appointed incumbent DFL Democrat Tina Smith may see GOP Challenger Jason Lewis more clearly in her rear-view mirror. Lewis trailed Smith by 11 points 1 month ago but today closes to within 7 points, 44% Smith, 37% Lewis.

Among senior citizens age 65+, the most reliable voters in a non-pandemic year, Smith led by 22 points 1 month ago but leads by just 8 points today. Lewis has picked-up 16 points. Trump's top-of-ticket portrayal of what the suburbs will look like if a Democrat is in the White House may be trickling down-ballot. Among suburban Minnesotans, Smith had led by 14 points, but now by just 2.

Of those voting for Trump in 2020, 79% also vote for the Republican Lewis. 7% cross-over and vote for the Democrat Smith. Of those voting for Biden in 2020, 82% also vote for the Democrat Smith. 5% cross-over and vote for the Republican Lewis.

Lewis's Net Favorability Rating has dropped from Plus 2 a month ago to Minus 2 today. Smith's Net Favorability Rating has also dropped nominally, from Plus 7 a month ago to Plus 5 today.

Get more ABC 6 News /SurveyUSA polling results here. 

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults statewide October 1, 2020 through October 6, 2020. Of the adults, 1,011 are registered to vote in Minnesota. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 929 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the November 03, 2020 deadline. 58% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will vote before Election Day. 39% will vote on Election Day. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of Minnesota adults. Respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points. In 2020, multiple overlapping forces are at work to limit the predictive value of public opinion polls. The manner, timing, and way in which many voters will mark a ballot in 2020 will differ from previous elections. Whether this makes turnout higher than anticipated, lower than anticipated or unchanged is unknowable. Whether there will be systemic voter fraud, as the President fears, or isolated and insignificant fraud, is unknowable. Whether there will be a smooth transition of power is unknowable. As such, this research provides rich and remarkable insight into the state of play in Minnesota at this hour, but may or may not correlate to what "will be" in 26 days.

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