ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA Poll: Biden 9 points over Trump, Smith over Lewis

SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News |

(ABC 6 News) - With 10 days until early voting begins in Minnesota – and eight weeks till votes are counted – Democrat Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 9 points in Minnesota, according to a new, exclusive, ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In this presidential poll in Minnesota, SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults statewide September 4 through September 7, with questions focused on both the presidential election and the United States Senate seat. With that in mind, this is a snapshot of Minnesotans as they look ahead to the November election.

The Presidental Election

• Biden 49%
• Trump 40%

Trump and Biden Poll in Minnesota | ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA

• Biden voters appear more motivated. Among those who are 100% certain to vote, Joe leads by 13.
• Among those who are likely to vote, but not 100% certain, Trump leads by 9.
• Among those who will vote in person, on Election Day, Trump leads by 27 points.
• Among those who will vote early, by mail-in absentee ballot, Biden leads by 55 points.

When likely voters are asked which of the two Presidential candidates would keep you safer, the answers match the vote totals:

• 49% in MN say Biden would keep them safer, including 54% of independents, 55% of moderates.
• 40% in MN say Trump would keep them safer, including 33% of independents, 29% of moderates.
• Biden leads on safety by 18 points in the Twin Cities area; Trump leads, though narrowly, elsewhere in MN.

President Trump has traditionally held an advantage over all Democratic challengers --- Who is stronger on the economy? --- today, the two candidates run effectively even, Biden 45%, Trump 43%. Trump is preferred by 25 points on the economy in Northeast MN, Trump is preferred by 14 points in Western MN, Trump is preferred by 7 points in Southern MN, but Biden is preferred by 13 points in the Twin Cities area, where 62% of the state's likely voters reside.

Trump's Net Favorability Rating among all registered voters in MN is Minus 14. 39% of voters view the 45th President favorably, 53% view him unfavorably. Biden's Net Favorability Rating is Plus 1. 42% of voters view Biden favorably, 41% unfavorably.

The  United States Senate Seat
DFL incumbent United States Senator Tina Smith was appointed to her position when Al Franken resigned. Though Smith is not well known by Minnesotans after two years in office, her Republican challenger, Jason Lewis, is less well known. At this hour, the contest stands:

• Smith 47%
• Lewis 36%

Smith and Lewis Poll in Minnesota | ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA

• Smith's lead comes entirely from women, among whom she leads by 22 points. The contest is tied among men.
• Independents break for the incumbent Democrat by 19 points; moderates break for the Democrat by 25 points.
• Of those voting for Biden, 84% stick with fellow Democrat Smith.
• Of those voting for Trump, 77% stick with fellow Republican Lewis.
• Smith has a Net Favorability Rating of Plus 7.
• Lewis has a Net Favorability Rating of Plus 2.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL SURVEY RESULTS

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults statewide September 4 through September 7, 2020. Of the adults, 620 are registered to vote in Minnesota. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 553 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the November 3 deadline. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of Minnesota adults. Respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points. In 2020, during a pandemic, any outcome is possible but no outcome may be credible.