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POLL: Biden up by 7 points in MN with early voting underway

KAAL-TV
Updated: October 08, 2020 08:18 AM
Created: October 07, 2020 05:59 PM

SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News | SurveyUSA poll for ABC 6 News |

(ABC 6 News) - In a new exclusive ABC 6 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA, it was found that a majority of Minnesota voters continue to have an unfavorable impression of the President, with no sympathy groundswell obvious following his 72-hour hospitalization, according to new the new survey. 

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Today, 44% in Minnesota view President Trump "extremely unfavorably," plus another 8% who view the President unfavorably, which combine for 52% negative sentiment, effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago. 39% view the President favorably today.

Poll: Opinion on Donald Trump | ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA Poll: Opinion on Donald Trump | ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA
Poll: Opinion on Joe Biden | ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA Poll: Opinion on Joe Biden | ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA

In an election for President in Minnesota today, incumbent Republican Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden 47% to 40%, a slight but not statistically meaningful change from ABC 6 News / SurveyUSA's September poll, when Biden led Trump by 9 points, 49% to 40%.

One day before the interviews for this survey began, Trump held a rally in Duluth, designed to shore up his support in a region critical to his changes of flipping the state's 10 electoral votes. But 24 hours later, Trump tested positive for COVID-19, and many see Trump's decision to speak maskless in Duluth, to a crowd that was not socially distanced, as reckless and irresponsible. Voters in that part of MN? They are unhappy. Trump had led by 24 points in Northeastern MN, but today leads by just 7, a 17-point swing to Biden.

Trump's repeated warnings to those who live in the suburbs that their way of life will be forever altered if Biden is elected may have some traction. Biden had led by 17 in suburban MN; Trump has cut that lead in half. Trump has also made inroads among middle-income voters, where Biden had led by 18 points but now trails Trump by a nominal 1 point.

Of those who have already voted, Biden leads Trump by more than 4:1. Of those who say they will vote in person on Election Day, Trump leads Biden 5:2. Among white voters, who are 87% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model, Biden had led by 5 points, now by 1.

Get more ABC 6 News /SurveyUSA polling results here. 


About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults statewide October 1, 2020 through October 6, 2020. Of the adults, 1,011 are registered to vote in Minnesota. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 929 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the November 03, 2020 deadline. 58% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will vote before Election Day. 39% will vote on Election Day. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of Minnesota adults. Respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points. In 2020, multiple overlapping forces are at work to limit the predictive value of public opinion polls. The manner, timing, and way in which many voters will mark a ballot in 2020 will differ from previous elections. Whether this makes turnout higher than anticipated, lower than anticipated or unchanged is unknowable. Whether there will be systemic voter fraud, as the President fears, or isolated and insignificant fraud, is unknowable. Whether there will be a smooth transition of power is unknowable. As such, this research provides rich and remarkable insight into the state of play in Minnesota at this hour, but may or may not correlate to what "will be" in 26 days.


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