Severe thunderstorms remain possible Monday, slightly cooler Tuesday, turning mild

Happy Sunday everybody!

Clouds have quickly increased across our area after a brief bout of sunshine earlier this afternoon. Temperatures have been able to climb into the low to mid 60F’s despite the cloud cover, making for a mild day.

A warm front tracks through the area late tonight into Monday morning, which will provide focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Given the amount of instability expected across the area during this time, some storms pose the threat of becoming severe. Large hail will be the primary threat through Monday morning.

Storms exit the area by late Monday morning as the warm front tracks east of the area, giving way to mainly cloudy skies through the afternoon. Dew points will surge into the mid 60F’s ahead of an advancing dry line and cold front, so it will feel sticky out! High temperatures will climb into the 70F’s across the area as well.

Aloft, a layer of warmer, but drier, air will overspread the layer of slightly cooler and more humid air closer to the surface. This will increase the level of potential instability in the atmosphere through the afternoon, but will also impose a cap. If storms are able to break through the cap Monday afternoon and evening, they will likely become severe. If there are not able to break through the cap, storm coverage will be limited.

Any storms that do form will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially strong tornadoes. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has all of our viewing area under a Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather for Monday. You will want to pay close attention to weather conditions and forecasts through the day tomorrow!

The severe storm threat diminishes around midnight Tuesday, with cloudy skies lingering through Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in Tuesday afternoon, resulting in a decrease in the cloud cover and a return of sunshine. Highs will be much cooler, in the upper 50F’s to around 60F.

Clouds increase again late Wednesday into Wednesday night as an area of low pressure passes us by to the southeast. A larger shield of precipitation is expected to graze the viewing area Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in a chance for scattered showers. We are not looking at a washout at this time, but you’ll want to have the umbrella with you!

The remainder of the week looks quiet, with sunshine returning Friday and sticking around through next weekend! High temperatures will gradually warm, with highs in the low 60F’s Friday, upper 60F’s Saturday, and low 70F’s Sunday.