ALERT DAY Monday: Severe storms likely Monday afternoon through evening across a large swath of the Midwest

A surge of warm, humid air will arrive Monday, making for a summer-like feel. This is also unstable air, and combined with a storm system moving through the region, will bring the likelihood of strong and severe thunderstorms.

There are still several uncertainties regarding the severe potential since it’s several days away. However, the broader scope of the overall weather pattern suggests that severe weather is starting to look likely in the Monday afternoon to evening timeframe. There will be ample moisture, lift, instability, and wind shear present, increasing that risk of severe storms.

Warm air will lift into the region behind a passing warm front with temperatures likely climbing into the upper 70s for highs which is more typical of early June.

Moisture will also surge north from the Gulf with dew point temperatures likely reaching the lower-to-middle 60s making it feel a bit humid.

There will likely be a “cap” in place which acts like a lid in preventing thunderstorms from developing until the late afternoon and evening hours when a cold front passes through which will likely “break” the cap leading to showers and thunderstorms developing with the potential of some becoming strong or severe.

Where the thunderstorms may initially develop is still uncertain, but will become clearer in the days ahead so make sure to stay updated with future forecasts. All severe weather hazards including large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will all be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center already has an elevated risk in place for the entire Weather First area for the possibility of severe weather.