We've seen a bit of graupel and a few flurries over the last couple of days, but it really hasn't amounted to too much. Tonight, into Tuesday morning, an early taste of winter is set for some with some accumulating snow.
It's not for everyone however, we're really keying in on north central Iowa (locally) the target for a little bit of a white blanket. Still, places further south into central Iowa could see a bit more.
An area of low pressure, situated in the Black Hills of North Dakota as of this afternoon is on the move tonight, dipping down and crossing across southern Iowa by sunrise on Tuesday. On the north side of the low, we'll be tracking a band of snow that looks to develop, as you can see mainly aimed on Iowa.
While snow isn't exactly rare in October, it is a little early to be talking about the first blanket. For Rochester, the first measurable amount (a dusting or more) on average, falls November 5th, the first inch or more, on November 22nd.
In Charles City, it's November 15th for the first measurable amount, and November 28th for the first inch or more. While data isn't immediately available for Mason City, it is most likely similar to that of Charles City.
Given this snow will be falling at night when temperatures are below freezing and the intensity looks to be significant enough, there will likely be some accumulations. Snow Tracker is pinpointing some minor accumulations along the US 18 corridor, but more further south. Locally, I'd be surprised to see anything over an inch, but in parts of central Iowa, 1 to 2" wouldn't be out of the question. For most of Minnesota, expect few flurries near the MN/IA border to dry conditions along US 14.
One thing to limit amounts will be the ground, which in Nashua this afternoon was 47° four inches deep and near Glenville, it was 51° at six inches. It will take added snow intensity to get accumulations on the warmer surfaces. I'm expecting most accumulations will stick to blades of grass, elevated off the ground, patio furniture or the top of a car, etc. Roads should remain, mainly wet.
Any lingering flurries to be gone by 9am with a bit of clearing into the afternoon. Also, if you do see a minor accumulation, it won't last long. It will quickly melt away after sunrise.
Storm Tracker 6 Chief Meteorologist