We had a wet start to the weekend with heavy rain and thunderstorms moving in during two waves on Saturday. Some places in southeast Minnesota picked up as much as 5” of rain and portions of Interstate 90 were closed in the western portion of the state.
We didn’t see any widespread flash flooding in our viewing area, but that threat increases with every day over the next week calling for rain. That starts Monday afternoon around 4 PM when showers and storms begin to move into southeast Minnesota and northern Iowa.
Thanks to increasing temperature and humidity, the atmosphere will have plenty of fuel for a few thunderstorms to become severe. Storm Tracker shows severe storms across the viewing area around 7 PM Monday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) of the National Weather Service has outlined our entire area with a slight risk for severe storms. Because instability (thunderstorm fuel) will be so high, if any thunderstorms do become severe they could be very violent storms. The SPC mentioned in a forecast discussion that they are monitoring our area for an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for storms, meaning thunderstorms would be more likely and more dangerous.
If thunderstorms stay isolated and away from other storms a few tornadoes could be possible. The environment for isolated storms looks best just west of the viewing area, but we will be tracking the possibility closely. For our area the main threats will be large hail and damaging wind.
After heavy rain Saturday, rivers and streams are running slightly high and Monday’s thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rain producers. Another 1-2” of rain is definitely not out of the question with the possibility for high amounts in isolated areas. If this rain comes too quickly, flash flooding could become a major problem.
Although the threat for severe weather diminishes slightly after Monday a few strong storms are still possible. Every single day of the next week has a good chance for rain.
A forecast by the National Weather Service shows a bullseye of nearly 4” of rain by the end of Friday. We will keep a close eye on the potential for flooding with every thunderstorm.
Storm Tracker 6 Meteorologist