For the second time in a week there is the potential for severe weather. The overall weather set up is very similar to Thursday’s event with a warm front moving north, giving us the chance for strong to severe storms.
As noted in the above convective outlook, issued by the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, the better chance for severe weather (moderate risk) is just south of the viewing area, while all of southeast Minnesota and northern Iowa sits in the slight risk area. At this time, two main severe weather ingredients are in question: source of lift (warm front) and instability (sunshine).
There is some disagreement amongst weather models whether or not the warm front will make it all the way to northern Iowa. The latest trends are for the warm front to only make it slightly north of Des Moines.
After a break from rain showers overnight Saturday into Sunday, some light non-severe showers and storms are expected to return by mid-morning Sunday, near 9 or 10 AM. Overcast skies will accompany showers/storms that develop and prevent the sun from heating. In order for thunderstorms to form they need instability commonly referred to as thunderstorm fuel. If sunshine does not arrive, instability will be lacking therefore stunting any strong storms from developing.
IF strong to severe thunderstorms do develop it won’t be until late in the evening or even overnight. The main threat with any storms that develops will be gusty wind with a chance for hail as well. An isolated tornado is possible, but that risk is much greater to our south. One model does have storms moving through our area around 10 PM.
Your Storm Tracker 6 Weather Team will be tracking the location of the warm front and arrival of any sunshine closely and will post any updates as needed. With all that said the risk for severe weather is present so it is a good idea to stay weather aware especially after sunset and make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings. You may sign up for text or email alerts through ABC 6 News by visiting this website.