Severe Weather Potential Update

Your Storm Tracker 6 Weather Team continues to track the potential for severe weather over the next 32 hours. This is an update to a previous blog published yesterday. One cluster of storms did form Wednesday quickly moving through southeast Minnesota. Hail the size of golf balls was recorded around Hayfield, MN.

As was the case Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, the potential for severe storms Wednesday night through Thursday is there, but remains very conditional.

As of 4:30 PM Wednesday storms are starting to form in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. This activity is largely expected to miss our area to the north and west but an isolated storm cannot be ruled out, as shown the slight risk depicted by the NWS below. The main threat is large hail.

Any activity that does spark Wednesday evening may continue through Thursday morning with showers and thunderstorms possible, hail continuing to be the main concern with a secondary concern of wind.

A second round of thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday afternoon/evening but it is highly conditional on how Thursday morning’s activity pans out. If showers or clouds linger too long into Thursday it will steal some of the energy thunderstorms need to form. That being said, all of the ingredients are in place for stronger storms, we just need something to force the storms to grow. There is high variability amongst weather models whether thunderstorms are possible over our area Thursday. The first model below (HRW-NMM) shows storms moving through southeast Minnesota at 10 PM. The second image shows a different model (HRW-ARW) completely dry at the same time.

Once again hail & wind are the primary threats Thursday evening, but there is a possibility for tornadoes. The potential for tornadoes is greater to our northwest, closer to the center of the low pressure, where shear values in the lower levels of the atmosphere are greater.

Stay tuned to your Storm Tracker 6 Weather team over the next 24-32 hours for developments with this severe activity. Make sure you have a way to get warnings should severe weather develop. You may sign up for text or email alerts through ABC 6 News here.