As Justin stated in the last blog post, the first snow for a few places looks to be on the way Tuesday night. Everyone will see a soaking rain, but we're diagnosing who sees snow. The target zone continues to be to our northwestern communities... especially those in Steele County. A Winter Weather Advisory replaces the Winter Storm Watch which had previously been in place for Tuesday night.
Tropical moisture is surging northeastward with a strengthening storm system that looks to pass directly overhead Tuesday night. While there could be snow for a few places, it will be rain for everyone and a hefty chunk at that. Two day precipitation totals will be notching over an inch in many places. Most of this will be rain, but some, will be snow.
So where does the band of snow set up? We'll have colder air crashing down on the area Tuesday night. The rain/snow line will be rather sharp, as the forecast sits now, setting up around an Albert Lea to Rochester line. While minor, some wet, sloppy snow accumulations will be possible north of this line, mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. One thing to keep in mind, the ground is still warm (48° 6" deep near Glenville) This will mean snow will struggle to accumulate until a high enough intensity is attained. To the south of that line, rain rules (1" or more in many spots).
While this system WILL impact the area, the biggest question is what type of precipitation... we'll be tracking the rain/snow line very closely for Tuesday night.
Our computer models still have some minor differences, subtle differences of just a few miles that we're trying to pin down.
Anywhere from all rain southeast to a mix of rain + 2 to 3" of snow is possible northwest.
Remember. Given the 'warm' scenario we are in, and with clearing conditions expected by Wednesday afternoon, any accumulation won't last long, likely not even until Wednesday evening.
Storm Tracker 6 Chief Meteorologist