Updated: 10/20/2013 7:54 PM
Created: 10/01/2013 5:51 PM KSTP.com
A powerful storm system will enter the upper midwest late Wednesday and continue to impact the area through Saturday night. A wide array of impacts are expected with heavy rain, strong/severe storms, wind and eventually cold air.
It all kicks of late Wednesday evening with rain entering the picture. Showers and T-Storms continue to dot the forecast producing heavy rain at times for Thursday and Friday morning as well. Some significant rainfall totals are expected.
Temperatures continue to stay mild for Thursday and Friday as a warm front is situated near the area. Middle 70s for highs are expected both days.
One of the better severe weather threats we've seen all year is trying to line up for Friday evening. It's a scenario where we'll need to be weather-aware with many headed out for the weekend and especially for prep football which will be taking place across the area. The Storm Prediction Center has already indicated SE Minnesota and NE Iowa as an area of interest for potential severe weather.
Here's the setup. As the heart of the system strengthens, it will move in close proximity to the local area by Friday evening. The warm front mentioned above will allow us to tap into moisture. Typically in a scenario such as this, the best place for severe thunderstorm development is near the warm front and also close to the center of the low. Below is the forecast surface map for Friday morning. By Friday evening the center of the low will have moved closer to the area.
With winds expecting to be turning clockwise with height, ample spin is set up for development of strong to severe thunderstorms. There is one question mark (There always is, right?). How warm can we get? The Thursday/Friday timeframe is a bit convoluted with rain chances, cloud cover may try to rob instability from the setup. No instability, no big boomers.
The subtle details will emerge as we get closer to the period. There's still three days to hone in the forecast and the severe threat will be greatly dictated by what happens beforehand, especially Friday morning. We'll be tracking this situation closely and bring you further updates in the coming days.
One thing that does look to be certain, on the back end of this system, a strong northwest wind takes over bringing in blustery temps for the weekend. Saturday will likely see temperatures falling throughout the day, ending up in the upper 30s by Sunday morning. The below image shows the temperature and wind forecast for Saturday evening.
Stay tuned for updates!
Storm Tracker 6 Chief Meteorologist